Charlie Bilello and the folks at Pension Partners won the 2016 Charles H. Dow award for outstanding research in technical analysis.

Their paper was based on the idea leverage is quite beneficial in clear uptrends.

Two important points to consider:

  • Volatility is substantially higher when the S&P 500 is below it’s 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages
  • 74% of the worst 1% of trading days in the S&P 500’s history came below the 50D MA

 

There are plenty of more things to note with data to back up key points in many market arguments.  Here’s the abstract with a link to the full paper.  I highly recommend giving it a read.