It’s been quite awhile since I’ve posted anything on this blog. Far too long in fact. Since you’ve heard from me, i’ve had a pretty shitty time.
I caught the worst cold of my life (nearly 4 weeks) and missed the best conference of them all (Stocktoberfest). Then a close childhood friend was killed in a drunk driving accident.
I’ve been questioning a lot lately, but one thing I know is I want to get back to writing and sharing ideas. That said, let’s get to it.
For months the game-plan that I’ve been telling clients and friends is this election disaster will feature fear and selling sometime around the election. Then we buy it. Was that a unique opinion and advice? Nah. The key now is figuring out what is next and staying the course.
Here are a few observations around the market and election.
- Check out this post election seasonality chart from Tom McClellan. The post election rally with a new party president tends to persist into the new year.
- When you look at all the B.S. around this election, it’s amazing how smooth the post election process has been. It’s a huge positive many people are ignoring due to their emotions.
- People are still nitpicking to find every Trump negative they can. As long as this goes on (and market internals remain positive) I will patiently, relentlessly buy stocks.
- We’ve been so focused on the election, other things are happening in the world and getting very little attention. Significant Alpha will be had. If you’re going to put in a couple of 100 hour work weeks, now is the time.
- Early in the fall the MACRO trades (ie sectors, bonds, commodities) were the best trading vehicles. That’s no longer the case and we can expect that to continue through year-end.
There’s much more to come..