It’s been quite awhile since I’ve posted anything on this blog.  Far too long in fact.  Since you’ve heard from me, i’ve had a pretty shitty time.

I caught the worst cold of my life (nearly 4 weeks) and missed the best conference of them all (Stocktoberfest).  Then a close childhood friend was killed in a drunk driving accident.

I’ve been questioning a lot lately, but one thing I know is I want to get back to writing and sharing ideas.  That said, let’s get to it.

For months the game-plan that I’ve been telling clients and friends is this election disaster will feature fear and selling sometime around the election.  Then we buy it.  Was that a unique opinion and advice?   Nah.  The key now is figuring out what is next and staying the course.

Here are a few observations around the market and election.

  • Check out this post election seasonality chart from Tom McClellan.  The post election rally with a new party president tends to persist into the new year.

mc osc.gif

  • When you look at all the B.S. around this election, it’s amazing how smooth the post election process has been.  It’s a huge positive many people are ignoring due to their emotions.
  • People are still nitpicking to find every Trump negative they can. As long as this goes on (and market internals remain positive) I will patiently, relentlessly buy stocks.
  • We’ve been so focused on the election, other things are happening in the world and getting very little attention.  Significant Alpha will be had.  If you’re going to put in a couple of 100 hour work weeks, now is the time.
  • Early in the fall the MACRO trades (ie sectors, bonds, commodities) were the best trading vehicles.  That’s no longer the case and we can expect that to continue through year-end.

There’s much more to come..