Over the weekend I went on a twitter rant about the quality of global market conditions.

I say all that, but the U.S. doesn’t look so hot right now.  We’re seeing market leaders and leading industry groups starting to erode (Nvidia/Semiconductors) and new highs in transports continuously fail.  Then last week we had a ‘don’t miss the train Dow up 300 points day’.

Naturally we have to consider the possibility of any further U.S. weakness spreading across the globe.

What makes this all interesting is the ratio of the U.S. to Global Stocks.  The All World Index (ACWI) is roughly 53% U.S. stocks.  The S&P 500 relative to the All World Index is finding resistance at this level.  There’s a chance we’re again seeing peak U.S. right here, right now.  Can the world decouple from the U.S?

spx acwi

Last month I penned It’s A Wonderful World of Stocks.  There are breakouts and great technical action across the globe.  Europe and Japan and some smaller Asian markets look great.  That said, I want to look at a couple of the ideas highlighted.

Brazil has broken out of this massive pattern, but it’s stalling.  With the industrial metals trade taking a big breather, can it hold up?


Thailand has broken out of a similar pattern as well.  It’s already testing the 50 day moving average.  If it can’t hang in there, this whole breakout might just be for not.


We’re going to learn a lot about global markets these next few weeks.  Let’s see how it plays out.

Trade ’em well