‘Sell in May and Go Away’ is the seemingly endless mantra that doesn’t pay off.  May after May pundits come out and preach sell in May, with little to no statistical merit.

However, there is one pattern within the presidential cycle that does tend to work.  It’s the summer after a 1st term president is elected from a new party.

mclellan
Source: McClellan Financial Publications

That’s right, an actual pattern that suggests to setup some summer weakness

We can assume this is tied into the progress or lack thereof a president’s “First 100 days”.  Trump’s 1st 100 have been a whole bunch of nothing after high hopes.  It’s entirely possible that some of “the disappointment” could get priced in as more time passes without any promises coming through.

We’ve reached a point where everyone is aware Sell In May hasn’t worked.  We’ve also seen a very strong start to the year where people are now confident and feeling good.  Thus, those who don’t have the data are going to tell us how Sell in May is futile and essentially shrug it off.

It’ll make for a fun drinking game at the desk this week.

Trade ’em well