Big things are happening in Bitcoin as it’s ripping again this weekend towards 10K. Ethereum has also ripped out of a multi month base with a measured move to 570. On the negative side, Jose Canseco is out touting Bitcoin like it’s his own personal ICO. The trashiest of the crypto stock plays ripped 100% or even more last week as well.
This all feels like we’re close to a climax. It’s probably not a coincidence we’re seeing it into this huge round number of 10,000. When you think about the mental accounting that goes into ‘where should I sell’, 10K or so is an easy exit area to target. Take into account how the bitcoin crazies are talking these days and it just drives in the idea/incentive for total pro’s to sell near the big round #.
As we approach the CME bitcoin futures launch, the consensus is that Bitcoin is a great play and relatively safe into event, but we all know that’s not how things end up working out. It’s when we feel the most comfort that we’re most vulnerable. That’s something worth keeping in mind.
Another reason to think we’re at a crypto inflection point is the chart. Looking at the Bitcoin Chart via my friend Arun Chopra, we see it just broke the upper boundary of this rising channel. That is a huge development. No high alert sirens go off in the markets, but if they ever did, this is a time. Bulls want to see that boundary break hold. It’s hard to be bearish BTC as long as price remains above. If it were give way, then that’s a legit technical reason to be highly concerned for a move back to the low end of the channel. For now it seems like 10K is a magnet.
If the worst case scenario happens soon in Bitcoin, people are going to try and tell us it will affect the broad market. Of course they would, right?! Well market breadth and liquidity is very strong and leading the market to new highs. That thesis is DOA (dead on arrival).
We’ll see how this plays out, but between the technical channel break, sentiment going wild and the big round # looming, it’s smart to be on alert. You have to keep yo head to keep yo bread.
Trade ’em well